Showing posts with label tariff=tax. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tariff=tax. Show all posts

Friday, January 31, 2020

Why we don’t lose money when the market crashes


Why we don’t lose money when the market crashes
We bought our stock or mutual fund shares at a certain price. When prices go down, the market is said to have fallen. BUT, and this is the point, we did not lose any of the shares we purchased (unless we sold in a panic). In most cases for our broad-market fund shares, the value of our account will go up when prices go up again. If we didn’t sell in 2007-8 when the market index fell from $150 to $69, our same shares are now worth $330. Our fund shares represent our part ownership in real producing companies. IT IS THE SHARES that have value and if we buy and hold as Buffett recommends, we won’t lose money when the market crashes. Unless we have insider information, we don’t know when an individual stock we bought for $20 will go to $1 or to $200. Speculating on a certain stock price has been shown to be a Loser’s Game. Remember when sellers give us an ‘inside tip’ they only make money when we trade: buying and selling. Even if your broker gives you bad advice, it takes years to recoup your loses (IF you can prove it). Make a killing when markets collapse: buy when share prices, NOT shares, fall—when they are ‘on sale’ as Buffett advises. Just keep buying shares in proven winners.

What can we do now that Trump says he will cut Medicare and Social Security?
Recently, Trump told the world he will cut Medicare & Social Security by “end of the year.” The GOP may actually do it since they passed his big 2017 tax cut for the rich. His tax cut for his tax-credit class only increased the deficit to $1Trillion. Now he needs to cut our benefits to pay for making the rich richer. What can we do now to supplement the cuts in our benefits in the future? Some have already started a tax-FREE account that they can use in retirement. Others have been converting some of their IRA money to this tax-FREE account. Future accumulations will not be taxed so these folks can make up for the cuts in benefits using the growth with no taxes due. They recognized early that the GOP would take our earned Social Security and Medicare benefits to pay off the deficit. The GOP is certainly NOT going to raise taxes on those who pay for their elections.

Lower your tax: We can continue to contribute to deductible IRAs
Previously, we were not allowed to continue making contributions to Traditional IRAs once we reached age 70½. But the SECURE Act removes this age limit, effective this year. This could be beneficial for the growing number of people who are working past age 70 since they can now continue making IRA contributions indefinitely, thus enhancing their long-term retirement financial security. They can also make non-deductible contributions to their Roth IRA which is never taxes later. On the other hand, distributions from traditional IRAs must begin when we reach 72 up from age 70 1/2. However, the new rule does not apply to those already older than 70 ½ or turned 70 ½ in 2019 (born on or before June 30, 1949). Those individuals must continue or begin taking RMDs under the old rule. The SECURE Act effectively eliminated stretch IRAs as an estate planning tool. Effective for deaths occurring after December 31, 2019, funds from inherited IRAs must now be fully withdrawn by beneficiaries within 10 years of the account owner’s death. Exceptions for spouse and disabled. See a professional.

Why are annuities popular despite falling interest rates?
Sales of all types of annuities rose nearly 15% in 2018 over 2017, according to the Insurance Information Institute, with fixed-annuity sales far surpassing variable annuities. It is claimed that annuities protect us against longevity risk by promising a stream of income we can’t outlive. Now more retirees will be enticed by the annuity offer because the new SECURE Act frees employers from the liability of annuity failure. Unfortunately, many retirees will be convinced that their employer’s annuity choice for their pension income is the best way to provide it. The employer is protected from liability when the annuity-income buying-power is cut in half later in life: $500 a month now will be worth $250 in 20 years. The employer will not have to worry about the possible failure of its insurance company. The employer will not be concerned about an escalating inflation rate and rising living costs. Yes, retirees will have a guaranteed income but as it’s value decreases, retirees will have no alternatives to maintain their buying power. Retirees will be stuck with today’s low interest-rate income payouts.

How to negotiate when you have a dispute  
Famous FBI hostage negotiator Chris Voss says don’t compromise: there isn’t a real big difference between compromising and caving. Let opponent think your solution is their own so they own it. Accommodator’s demeanor is your competitive edge. You are listening to and getting along with everyone. Listen first: opponent will share things you would never know. Commiserate with their real fears: “sounds like you have been burned in the past.” Instead of getting to ‘yes’ getting to ‘that’s right’ creates agreement. Rapport allows opponent to feel comfortable sharing. Sharing frees them from feeling judged and attacked. Say: “It seems like I haven’t earned your trust yet.” Speak quietly. Empathize. Paraphrase what they just blamed you for. Instead of ‘no’, “How can I do that.”

Complete your tax filing for FREE
If you meet certain criteria and have your documents already, federal and state can cost you nothing at https://apps.irs.gov/app/freeFile/. Another site has no income/forms restrictions: https://www.creditkarma.com/tax. The software helps you avoid common mistakes before you file. Even if you make a tiny mistake, the IRS usually catches it without penalty. I have used most of these programs for years even though my income is above the limits. Most charge nothing for the federal and state. Some charge only $12.95 for the state. In 2019, NJ has kept the ObamaCare mandate tax if you don’t have health care cover so that state return may get complicated. Once you file your first year, your previous years’ data is there and pre-fills your forms: Saves a lot of time and money. Try it before you spend $200-300 at a for-profit preparer. No refund due? File to keep your ID from scammers. Your W-2 should be sent to you by Jan 31 according to IRS.

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Like 1776, this period is a test of democracy—do we really want ‘low-IQMobster?

Claim: Impeachment not possible because anything Trump does is in the national interest


Trump wants to have us taxpayers pay for religious education of some kids: Constitution?
Trump allows states to undermine health coverage for poor with caps/block grants.

On this 75th anniversary, would our soldiers defy the commander in chief if he gave an order to arrest without warrants all the people from ‘shithole’ countries?

Former Treasury Sec Summers plans to close rich loopholes/bump IRS not ‘wealth tax’.

SCAMS/SPINS:
Treasury admits reasons for tariffs were ‘trumped’ up for propaganda purposes

Jeff Carpoff CA caught wire fraud, money laundering $1 billion mobile solar generator
Alex Gierbolini caught making $2 million unsuitable sales over time to a wealthy client

Jerry Szilagyi Catalyst Capital mislead investors lost $ 100 million risky deals
Kerry Wills caught ‘borrowing’ from client and taking $19,500 gift.

Some Americans have already voted for prez: our long process from 1800s out of date?

IPhone of Amazon CEO hacked by Saudis: Nothing safe from hackers: DO NOT OPEN
Ring and other apps sell your info to others: you gave app OK to collect info. Not sell it.

TrumpCare puts onus on you if your employer uses ICHRAs: you alone pick/pay for plan

Jobs

Who owns your account now?
IRS claims you have rights when you have to deal with them: no calls just letters


Miracle:
How did Billie Eilish win 4 Grammys: ‘song and record of the year’?

IAN
41 Watchung Plaza, B242
MontclairNJ   07042
973.746.2014
Alerts 

Friday, August 2, 2019

Will our hubris or egos ever let us win?


Will our hubris or egos ever let us win?
Like the children of Lake Wobegon who are ALL above average, we think we can outsmart the stock market and Wall Street. Again we are proven wrong but we keep trying and lose our shirts and pants and ….  Over the past year and for periods of five, 10, 20 and 30 years, the average mutual fund investor has underperformed the markets for both stocks and bonds, according to Dalbar. Bond investors have generally failed to even keep up with inflation. In the 30 years through December 2018 the average bond mutual fund investor earned 0.26% compared with annual inflation of 2.49%. Over the course of an entire generation, bond investors’ money shrank more than 2% A YEAR. If you had held an index fund that simply tracked the bond market--Vanguard started such a fund in 1986--you would have earned about 6%, fees included. Instead of earning over 11% in stocks, the average fund investor earned just 4.1%. “What’s shocking is that simply by investing [with an advisor], most people actually made themselves poorer.”

How can a millennial learn to save and invest?
Financial literacy programs in high school have failed. Only when we need the information do we act on good advice. How can we understand the greatest lesson in personal finance? I think this chart says it all: http://www.saferchild.org/power/.
You can see that over time (not weeks or months), your savings can grow many times over. Starting just 8 years earlier makes our money grow 64 fold: $16,000 to $1,000,000. We all have TIME—we don’t all have money. We don’t need a broker or stock-picking genius to grow our nest egg. In fact, paying someone to manage our money reduces our overall accumulation. The only way to reach our money goals is to invest in a broad array of stocks and stock mutual funds at cost. It is TIME and the power of compounding that grows $16,000 into $1 million. We earn over 11% a year not 3.79% with a ‘managed’ account. Warren Buffett recommends we use a low-cost index fund for wealth. Look at the annual earnings of the market here: moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm


Major firms losing advisors/brokers: What if your advisor leaves?
Wells, Merrill and UBS have lost their better people. Over the past decade wirehouses have experienced a steady flow of advisers and assets leaving for other financial advice platforms. Advisers at wirehouses are typically paid in the neighborhood of 40% of their annual revenue, and they can double that portion at an independent broker-dealer. Or, if they open a registered investment advisory firm, they become independent business owners and control the equity in their practice. Changes to their pay grid is described as ‘death by a thousand cuts.’ Since the financial industry wants to keep taking $ billions from us each year, it must change with the times. RoboAdvisors and other discount vendors try to keep the Wall Street windfalls churning. However, unless you have money to burn, you are better off without the gurus and ‘money managers.’ When others handle your money, you lose. Fidelity found that the most successful customers were those that had ‘forgotten’ their account. They left it alone to compound. Money compounds at 11% when left alone. Let your advisor take from the wealthier folks who can afford it.

Is your vehicle on the ‘hit list’?
My ’12 Camry is NOT on the list. In fact, there are no Toyotas or Hondas on the list. These are the most plentiful cars around and should be the cars for a quick ‘joy’ ride--a young person’s spur of the moment choice. Do we consider the cost of insurance when we shop for a vehicle? We should since rates are based on the risk of loss. If your ride is one of the chosen ones, you may be paying more for insurance. Funny, I would not expect all the pickups on the list. Perhaps stealing a pickup for a joyride is something I don’t understand or those starting a new construction job just need a tool for work. Also, why are there no Miata or Porsche or Maserati sports cars? Even Corvette is absent. Since there are a lot of 4 wheel drives—even a 4 door Benz—perhaps the list is mostly from hill country. However, there were only 65,000 of these top line jobs produced in Mexico so they must have been chosen for theft to hit # 10 on the list.

New York moves to make annuity sellers act in our ‘best’ interest
Sellers must provide customers with ‘best interest’ service going beyond the lower standard of ‘suitable.’ The law requires that financial services providers consider the interests of the consumer above everything else when making the annuity recommendation, mandating that any advice be “based on an evaluation of the relevant suitability information of the consumer and reflects the care, skill, prudence, and diligence that a prudent person acting in a like capacity and familiar with such matters would use under the circumstances then prevailing.” However, a broker or producer cannot sell the best products unless the firm makes them available. Most firms are for profit and so we must pay for the commissions, fees and charges that are added into the contract. Most of us do not know a ‘best interest’ product if it hit us in the face. Certainly the sellers have never seen ‘best products’ professionally unless they buy one themselves. (Sellers don’t offer Ukrainian US annuities, for instance.) New York & New Jersey are on the right ‘fiduciary’ track but most consumers can’t buy an ‘at cost’ annuity from a broker or bank or agent. Their firms wouldn’t allow it.


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More wasted $ million in Afghan war: US fears ‘losing’ guerilla war—2,400 dead so far!

SCAMS/SPINS:
Trump not mind vermin in his own Trump Grille (sp) and The Bronx Golf Links
Trump cuts money to expand Medicaid—no help for poor sick folks: Kills 15,000.
Trump still thinks China pays the tariff on imports: Did he really go to college?


Trump gets gift horse from Mongolian leader Khaltmaagiin Battulga: Emolument?
Trump 2020: Does any Dem have a vision to inspire me to vote & override USSR?

10,000 cryptocurrency investors face IRS letters to pay up: tax evasion of fair share.
We got hacked AGAIN: Capital One accounts hit by former vendor employee.

Dawn Bennett caught 17 charges related $20 million Ponzi scheme. Gets 20 yrs.

Hector May caught stealing $11.5 million in Ponzi only to pay $8.4 million in restitution.
John Place, the Kirks, caught stealing $13 million on trading securities. No jail

Audi led VW in emissions scandal: Can you trust their tests when you re-sell?


17 NJ doctors caught assault, drugs, fraud, bribes, etc etc on patients. Check yours.

Jobs:
GEICO offers ‘pay as you drive’ plan—per mileage/style premium DriveEasy.

Who owns your account now?
Accounts to help a disabled relative: Trusts and annuities to pay a lifetime.

Miracle:


Two guys settle medical debt of 10,000 people in Appalachia: Americans in trouble.

IAN
41 Watchung Plaza, B242
MontclairNJ   07042
973.746.2014
Alerts 

Friday, May 17, 2019

Need a graduation gift?


Need a graduation gift?
The greatest gift you can give is financial knowledge. No matter how much your young graduate makes, it is up to YOU to show them the Buffett investment strategy. Make sure they can make and manage money. At my first job, I had no clue which investment to use for my 401k contributions and company match. The HR person told me to put it into the 'safe' stable value fund. That was the worst choice at my age I learned later when I got my securities’ licenses. If I had followed their advice I would have ended up with about $150,000 instead of a Wealth Reserve of $877,233 about 33 years later.

The BIG Con: Earn up to 7% with NO MARKET RISK
Looking for the Highest Guaranteed Return?
This is the current misleading ad from an annuity marketing firm. The insurer is not mentioned—for good reason. The best REAL rate is 4.3% but you must keep your money locked up for 10 years or pay the surrender charge. See the disclaimers: * Effective yield displayed. First year rate is higher than subsequent years.** Rate may be lower in certain states. Only a gimmick or trick from a carrier could show a pretend rate of 7%. But this is the only way salespeople can get your attention. Unbiased information is not easily available because most annuity contracts are complicated. 7% may be the ‘potential’ return for a SINGLE period like monthly indexed annuities. However you need to be an actuary to figure out how the terms of the contract will produce your real return. When I was in the business, we only cared about the commission to us and how brokers/advisors could push the sale to clients. None of us understood the actual calculations. But people will buy anything when the alternative is a 3% CD and a volatile market.

Liberty Mutual claims it customizes Mr Landry’s special needs coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQnbL_5ZgbY
Every insurer claims “you only pay for what you need” and then they go on to include in their ‘standard policy’ a bundle that includes life, disability, accidental death, funeral, extraordinary medical, income loss, medical payments coverage, and medical insurance. But most people already pay for these coverages. Your premium is not usually itemized so you don’t see they add charges for towing and rental car loan and insurance as well as accident forgiveness, waiver of depreciation, full replacement if totaled, uninsured /underinsured motorist coverage, family protection coverage, mechanical breakdown coverage, gap insurance, ‘stacking’ and many other things. For instance, if you are insuring an older car you may not need comprehensive coverage. You also may NOT be told about all of your insurer’s discounts or their complaint history. Remember, the commissions and profits are determined by the premium you will be paying for the next 20-30 years. Every insurance company can ‘customize’ your coverage to pay less if you know their discounts and your ‘needs.’ Cancel double coverage you don’t need.

Bull market took 10 years to recover but what could you do about 2007-8?
Jeff Sommer writer of ‘Strategies’ in the Times, noted that it took a rise of 100% after a 50% decline and so we should learn that “avoiding big losses was probably more important than reaping big market gains.” YES, but how Mr Sommer? He didn’t tell readers in Nov 2007 that the market would drop and so get out. No one did. Sommer advises us to look at longer periods to understand what the stock market can do for our expectations. We don’t have to use the ‘artificial’ calendar cut offs to gauge performance. I don’t think any of us or our advisors can predict the future so I refer him to the graphic by Richard Bernstein or the chart by DALBAR showing that our best deal is a low-cost index tracking the S&P 500. Yes there are ups and downs but I will take 10.98% a year since 1976. No other asset can claim that record: Govt bond 7% since 1980; Corporate bonds 8% since 1973; Commercial real estate 10.23% since 1996; Gold 5.5% since 1993; Commodities 4.2% since 1993. Owning the 500 Index is what Warren Buffett advises.

Is this socialism?
Trump is giving $15 billions MORE to farm corporations so they make their profit goals.
Farm subsidies go to 5 crops mostly. Large agribusiness corporations not family farmers capture most of the $ billions. It is the marginal family farm that will be hurt by Trump’s tariff war with China. His GOP friends in Congress benefit directly from this type of socialism. There are no tariff offsets for small businesses like your local bike shop. Another type is giving profiteers federal land so they can ‘steal’ our oil/gas. We earn much less in royalties than the private landowner.
Another type of socialism is the Export-Import Bank where our largest corporations receive taxpayer-backed cheap loans they don’t need to make more for shareholders. 
Another type of socialism is the price fixing that Congress allows to go on in the drug industry. We allow the drug companies to collude to raise prices on even the generic drug business the government established in 1984. Most new drugs are actually created by the National Institutes of Health (NIH). U.S.-based foundations have increased their investments in discovery and development for new drugs specific to their diseases of interest. After we pay for the research, the drug companies pay for testing and distribution (nightly TV advertising too). The government gives companies the legal right to make $ billions on each drug. After 20 years the drugs are supposed to be supplied by the generic industry at lower cost. This isn’t what happens. Congress allows Pharma to manipulate the process. Studies looking at cancer treatments have shown no correlation between the price of cancer drugs and the benefits they provide. We pay more for drugs—even 8,281% more for generics—than the rest of the world. Our government won’t bargain with Pharma on price so they are free to gouge us. I pay $15 for one Januvia pill here and $4 in Canada. Which should we pay?

Do you see a pattern investment strategy here?
This is the new Callan Periodic Table: https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Classic-Periodic-Table-2019.pdf. I hope you can see a pattern but I sure can’t. If you knew what was on top in 2019, you could put all your chips there. But most of us don’t know. Others guess. Others read lines and charts and say they know. But they are paid to say they know. And even the most successful investors don’t know. So what can we do? Warren Buffett and John Bogle say, don’t try to find the needle, buy the haystack. But it can’t be that simple since a whole industry is devoted to finding that next big thing. And some of us pay them to do it even when they fail.

How do you judge your broker/advisor?
Are they providing the best advice possible or just OK? How do you know? How do you measure your success? Which benchmark do they use to show you how well they are doing? You know they must be paid but how are you paying them? Like every vendor you hire, you don’t want to get cheated. Unfortunately, only now is the industry starting to identify the bad brokers/advisors that move from firm to firm. John Bogle, founder, Vanguard has created low-cost investing so that we don’t need to give up 63% of our total possible accumulations because we pay too much. The actual returns of managed equity accounts have been tracked over time. DALBAR’s annual study shows we average investors earn only 3.79% on their money compared with the 11% from an index. You can end up with $854,000 or $220,000 for retirement. This is why the industry has changed. People need to hire a financial specialist like they hire a lawyer NOT like a cable firm’s monthly retainer. When we have a problem and need advice, we get it in a couple of meetings. Most of us do not need to pay 1-2% of our portfolio every quarter so that our advisor can tell us how we are doing. We can see it ourselves in our statements and strategies. Learn how to judge. Pay less; earn more: 1% or 0.04%?


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Make America, “The Don”, Great Again
Truth isn’t truth, his lawyer says

Two Americas: A Banana Republic? Do we really want an infant king? Daddy Putin!

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How Govt wastes our money: Congress spends $1.3 Trillion we don’t have! 
Rubio enlightens Trump on China trade: CEOs make deals not Trump: Follow the $s.

Senator tells witness to violate the law: GOP backs Mob Boss to defy Congress.
Broker regulators just now propose warning investors about bad brokers & firms???
Trump use war to win 2020 election? GOP leaders never heard of Iran & war ships.


SCAMS/SPINS:
Trump tells Boeing just to rename the 737 Max: “consumers have very short memory”!

Trump goes on attack (best defense is offense) against law enforcement: FBI, CIA, Spys
Trump cutting Pell Grants for college education: sending money to the moon.


Melting global ice pack allows more trade opportunities for Trump’s Mob, he says.
Coal industry changing our species and habitats forever thanks to Trump’s Mob

Boeing ignored pilot warning about 737: killed 189 and then 157 and claims safe


Debt collectors want no restriction on calls/week or emails/texts intimidation. Trumpism.
TurboTax, Block, others in IRS FreeFileAlliance hid the free option so we pay more.

Child abuse inside Scouts sends BSA into bankruptcy? 5,000 perversion files ignored?

The Mob Boss can never go to jail: Trump has Kava as Supreme so no contempt.
‘No man is above the law’ … well up till now. Dictators nullify courts first, then votes.

Jobs:
Insider attacks were responsible for most healthcare data breaches: Dr have BIG loans.

Boarding homes for singles are back: Earn helping others in need!
23 apply for President: too many so Trump wins again?

Who owns your account now?
Why we return so many electronics: can’t get started to use: no user help, etc.
WA first state give residents public option health care plan but run by insurers: 1st in US

United Capital Financial Partners to Goldman Sachs Group


Miracle:
AL has turned back time to 1960s when no abortions even if raped by a relative. Move.

IAN
41 Watchung Plaza, B242
Montclair, NJ   07042
973.746.2014
Alerts