Your Unbiased Advisor: having enough

Showing posts with label having enough. Show all posts

Friday, October 27, 2023

“Will we have enough?”

Every retiree asks “Will we have enough?”

Answer: There’s no way to know without knowing what we plan to spend. If you’re approaching retirement, here are two simple steps to figure out if you’ll have enough. First, you need to estimate how much you will have at your chosen retirement age. If you have $1 million in savings, pensions, and investments, you can simply divide by the number of years you may need income. A couple may have 20 years on average in the golden years. This means $50,000 a year before inflation. Social Security may provide another $72,000 a year with the COLA addition. Inflation will reduce the $122,000 a year each year. A big expense like travel, home, etc should be incurred early. If you have no idea or can’t imagine how much you’ll spend during your retirement years, use the amount you’re spending now. Most folks try to fine tune these estimates as they go forward. For instance, if one of you is forced to quit or wants to expand a part-time job or hobby, this will change your answer to the question of enough. Better to have some idea of whether you must keep working now rather than later. A plan, any plan is better than no plan. For instance, some of us have cut some expenses 10-15 years before we will need the extra money. We saved $600 a year on car insurance so we have $20,000 more for a planned RV tour of the US.

https://www.amazon.com/Maximize-Social-Security-Benefits-Retirement-Income/dp/1495439224/

What to do now: market retreated below its historic average of 11%

Many of my readers are regretting not capturing the recent highs in market indices. However others know that the future is hard to forecast so they chose NOT to get out now. Market timing has not been shown to be easy to pull off. They are not taking out money right now or in the short future so they will “stay the course.” Commentators have been predicting the market collapse or recession for months. In July market levels hit near 4600. Few could see the end clearly so many benefited from the summer expansion. Now they are faced with a changed situation. Will dumping stocks for 5% Treasuries be more rewarding than anticipating higher returns from a 4.9% annual rate of GDP growth, the strongest since late 2021? Each of us must decide. Most experienced investors recommend staying in the stock market IF your need for funds does not come for at least 10-15 years. And the inflation rate at 3.7% does not seem to predict a clear course. Perhaps this is the time to keep the bulk of our portfolio in both assets equally.

We just don’t know: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Ball-Investing-Winning-unfair-market/dp/1548831409

********ACCOUNTABILITY**************?

Like 1776, this period is a test of democracy—We rejected an "American fascist" once

The Path to Dictatorship: 2010-2030

Parallels of this era in the past may hint at our future: democracy breaks apart legally

Jan 21 2010 Corporations’ election-spending unlimited

Billionaires paid $881 million for votes in 2022 midterm elections

Nov 2020 Wealthy discredit election process

Nov 21 2020 Trump’s Plans for a Coup: criminal

Nov 21 2020: Trump plan: US Marshals seize voting machines

Jan 6 2021 Direct govt overthrow failed: guns & bombs ready

Trump engaged in a "criminal conspiracy" to stop Biden

“I don’t f—ing care that they have weapons”

Trump was “detached from reality”

Trump used mafia-style intimidation on the defenseless

Trump still terrorizing election woman

Parscale: “a sitting president asking for civil war.”

Trump: “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me”

GOP fascism: “RINO hunt armed; no bagging limit” J6 comm threat

January 6, 2021 “A date which will live in infamy”

Trump’s Supremes END personal rights & state laws except for weapons WMDs

Fascism: GOP to stop women leaving state for abortion

It’s not a court. It’s a junta: Two Americas

Trump: President Biden is 'enemy of the state'

Christian Nationalist Party (CNP) replaces GOP

Nov 8 2022 Trump’s “national revolution” failed

Nov 15 2022 Trump announces for 2024 to avoid lawsuits

Dec 3 2022 Trump: cancel Constitution rules so ‘I win’

Mar 11 2023 Pence straddles his place in history

Mar 31 2023 Trump indicted misusing election money

Apr 7 2023 One GOP guy decided which drugs we can use

Apr 9 Illustrated Anne Frank book removed by Florida school

Apr 21 Trump: “I am your justice”

May 9 Trump guilty of sexual abuse

Jun 8 Trump indicted by the United States of America

Violation of the Espionage Act

Conspiracy to obstruct justice

Making false statements

Aug 1 2023 Trump indicted by the United States of America

Conspiracy to defraud the United States

Conspiracy to obstruct Congressional proceeding

Obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding

Conspiracy against right to vote

Attempted coup d'état by any other name

350+ people have been sentenced to jail or prison.

Trump and His Gang Get the Mob Treatment

Aug 4 “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!”

Mobster #1 Enrique Tarrio gets 22 years

Mobster Stewart Rhodes sentenced to 18 years

Mobster Ethan Nordean gets 18 years

Mobster Dominic Pezzola sentenced to 10 years

Aug 14 2023 Trump & 18 indicted by the State of Georgia

VIOLATION OF THE GEORGIA RICO (RACKETEER INFLUENCED AND CORRUPT ORGANIZATIONS) ACT SOLICITATION OF VIOLATION OF OATH BY PUBLIC OFFICER

CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT INIPERSONATIN PUBLIC OFFICER FIRST DEGREE

CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT FALSE STATEMENTS AND WRITINGS

CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT FALSE DOCUMENTS

FORGERY IN THE FIRST DEGREE

CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT FALSE STATEMENTS AND WRITINGS

FILING FALSE DOCUMENTS

SOLICITATION OF VIOLATION OF OATH BY PUBLIC OFFICER

FALSE STATEMENTS AND WRITINGS

SOLICITATION OF VIOLATION OF OATH BY PUBLIC OFFICER

FALSE STATEMENTS AND WRITINGS

Aug 24 2023 The Don, Racketeer: GA jailhouse real ‘mug’ shot

Oct 2 2023 Kelly, Trump’s staff, confirms Trump called our veterans/wounded soldiers “suckers”

“Wannabe Dictator” to run House of our? “Representatives”

Jan 2025 Dictator pardons himself: his Supremes agree

How Govt wastes our money:

Debt payment: Global billionaire tax could yield $250 billion annually: stop cheating

How Corporations Can Still Get Out of Paying Taxes: better loopholes

Wasted taxes: $1 billion NASA test its 8-rotor Saturn Titan moon drone Dragonfly

Our broker/advisor complaints are often erased by regulators without our consideration

SCAMS/SPINS:

Another Trump co-defendant pleads guilty: filing false documents to use fake electors

A third Trump lawyer pleads guilty to felony false statements and writings.

State lawmakers have weakened child labor laws to let companies cut costs raise profits

Scam: fake bank security tells customer to prevent info thief, convert savings to crypto.

We use TEOS on IRS.gov to help find or verify qualified, legitimate charities.

Which bonds should you hold: TIPS, Treasuries, or Total bond fund?

Chase Customers Again Report Missing Money, Wrong Balances: 2^nd time takes longer

TX bans people traveling on roads if intent is abortion: how know? Nazi-style policing!

23% of us say: “true” patriots may have to use violence in order to save our country."

CR finds more lead, cadmium in chocolate: change Halloween candy?

Driverless vehicles were a risk to the public: CA tells GM.

Safeguard Metals steered retirees who cashed out of IRAs for high-markup silver coins

New Speaker Johnson led attack on Biden election: “states allowed ‘illegal’ voting”

Jobs

Low stress high-paying jobs: engineer, statistician, economist

Best and worst states for teachers: VA, NY, UT vs NH, DC, HI

jobs.interestingengineering.com/

UAW called on all workers at Ford to return to their jobs: deal done?

Who owns your account now?

Prices on some used cars have dropped sharply over the past year:

New Fiduciary Rule: Advisors must provide the best product for you

Net worth increased from $141,100 to $192,900 during 2019-2022.

Education Dept: identified errors made by some student loan servicing companies

Massachusetts Doubles Estate Tax Exemption to $2 million

Long Covid Sufferers Preyed on by Stem Cell Clinics

Miracles:

Hamas’s armed wing released a mother and daughter, both Americans

New diabetes treatment could benefit from cell-based therapies.

West Antarctica could contribute more to sea level rise than previously expected

Malaria carried by mosquitoes part of wave of sickness and death due to climate change.

An ultrasound device to detect aggressive breast cancer that develops between screenings

Charging EVs while driving in Sweden

New blood test detects tumors early among families with history of cancer

Our Universe is Mind-Blowing

Light is both a particle and a wave depending on how we look at the light.

I don’t think that there is any such thing as a position or a velocity of a particle.

Everything (galaxies to stones) in universe made of subatomic energy ‘vibrations’

A subatomic ‘particle’ is the smallest possible vibration (quantum) of a quantum field.

A ‘particle’ is an event; not an objective thing. This event is set of complex relationships.

Mass–energy equivalence: E=mc^2. At the smallest level; Everything is moving

Energy into matter: scientists converted light energy directly into matter in one step

In place of atomic lattice, light waves used to create an optical lattice with same geometry

Physics Nobel Prize: “entanglement” 2 particles share info instantly at a distance

Quantum mechanics violates local realism: two objects behave as single system at distance

“It may be that gravity and quantum mechanics are exactly the same thing,” Leonard Susskind

Gravity might induce the collapse of quantum vibrations into 1 quantum state—our world

Strange state of physics that allows energy to flow frictionlessly through a material.

Bending light from extreme gravity reveals largest black hole so far

Curved SpaceTime: heavy masses and simultaneously quantum effects become visible

There is no TIME at this level because of force fields come and go in all directions.

Universe expanding: events may not come together like they did before: created our time.

Our planetary system: rarest system: only 1% of all systems with same number of planets

Stars fueled by the self-annihilation of dark matter might have been spotted for the first time by JWST

Inside protons, neutrons, it is the fields of the virtual particles that creates its mass.

Gold made from neutron stars: collisions produce more neutrons:79 protons,118 neutrons

The proton is so complicated science still finds new energy entities/forces every year.

“Empty space is a boiling, bubbling brew of virtual particles that pop in and out of existence in a time scale so short that you can’t even measure them.” Space expanding.

New method to study systems with long-range interactions: previously puzzling experts

The electricity we use comes from the field around the wire not from electron itself.

Natural ‘missing law’ explain how universe evolved: functions increase in complexity over time

Scientists build 'baby' wormhole as sci-fi moves closer to fact: inside quantum computer

starts-with-a-bang/universe-expansion-not-accelerating/

Physicists knew black holes eventually disappear particle by particle. Now they think everything else does, too.

Astronomers discover raw materials for life are present all across the Universe: methyl cation

We can apply for Medicare online: https://blog.ssa.gov/apply-for-medicare-online

We can apply for Social Security online: https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/

We can apply for health care online: https://www.healthcare.gov/

IAN

973.746.2014

http://www.theinsidersguides.com/

Alerts available at http://dankeppel.blogspot.com/ No AI used in these comments

Friday, June 16, 2023

Are you using UN-biased advice?

Why we need a fully invested comprehensive portfolio

Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks since 2005 but we don’t know the future. Holding one segment or type of stock can provide great gains but only for a while. We need growth and value from every sector for a long-term gain of at least 11% per annum. Without the average market gain of 11%, our purchasing power would be overwhelmed by inflation when it rises. Most money managers try to pick stocks that exceed the average returns but few do it for long. There are simply too many variables and actors trying to do the same thing. Returns “regress to the mean” as this phenomenon is called. Since money managers are paid big bucks to find the “needle in a haystack,” smart investors know they can’t. They use tricks to advertise that they have found the”needle” in the past and thus promise to do it for you. Unfortunately, the record is clear—those who made the top of the list last time fall to the bottom next time. In fact, all the top performers fell to the last within 31/2 years. And the frustrating part is that no one can predict which manager will rise next period. Meanwhile, the low-cost market index rises past 14% after almost everyone predicted a recession. Just “stay the course.”

https://www.amazon.com/Vanguards-Top-Ten-mutual-funds/dp/150073909X

Retirees need to plan for one of these life-changing events

No one lives a perfect life. Folks who devote some time to planning for earth-shattering contingencies are better able to cope. A large majority of retirees say they have experienced a major event during their retirement. We are talking about an important person in their lives not being around that requires big changes being dealt with. Death, especially sudden death, of a partner can be catastrophic to them. Most people don’t want to think about such an event but the experience can be softened by some planning. For instance, do both of you know where the income and expenses are? Can you count on family/friends for support? Where are the crucial documents located? A serious discussion about your final wishes needs to happen before you can’t have it. This is one of the greatest regrets survivors have. Same effects happen with a divorce and to some degree a significant financial failure. I would also include significant health issues: illness and becoming the caregiver to a relative.

https://www.amazon.com/Your-Plan-Live-Age-100/dp/1548180793

Would an annuity in your retirement plan help you or insurers?

Another bill would open the retirement plan default investment list to annuities by easing the current QDIA asset liquidity rules. A qualified default investment alternative means that if you don’t tell your employer where you want your money to go at retirement, your employer can put your money in an annuity you may not like. Insurers that issue annuities typically put restrictions on access to your assets. This is not good for you since you lose control of your money. Another problem is that your funds will be drastically reduced over time due to the insurer’s fees, charges, and costs hidden in the contract. SEC on annuities: “These fees and expenses will reduce the value of your account and the return on your investment.” It is much more beneficial to you to have a large mutual fund company move the funds from your employer into a high-earning low-cost fund that can credit your checking account automatically every month for income or investment. This will give you access to your money anytime and at the same time provide a monthly income just like an annuity. You get the best of both strategies without the extra costs.

https://www.amazon.com/Not-Buy-That-Annuity-Guaranteed/dp/1466494573

Are you using unbiased advice?

One of our most important financial decisions is finding and using UN-biased advice. Any person who provides guidance in money matters is legally required to be registered. Everyone who provides specific information is paid by us whether we see the fees, charges or commissions or not. UN-biased advisors: experienced, credentialed, clean record, not pushy, full cost and penalty disclosures, get plan in writing, clear explanation, benefits for you AND seller, nothing ‘risk free,’ forget references and affiliations. Fee-only planners provide the best choice for most folks seeking UN-biased information about how, where, and when to part with our money. You pay a fee like paying a lawyer and you get best UN-biased advice money can buy.

https://www.amazon.com/Lies-Financial-Advisors-Told-alternatives/dp/1478281545

The myths of investing

The myths: Advisors can provide you with market beating returns. There are people who make a lot of money trading stocks—buying and selling—for the profits while avoiding the losses. Money managers can pick the right portfolio for long-term gains. You can avoid losses by timing your investments. There are trends in market winners and smart financial managers can ride the trends. You will not succeed in reaching your goals unless you use a paid advisor. Using a broad low-cost market index will provide less than par returns. You will never be successful if you steadily contribute to your 401k. The market is like gambling—you can win big by buying the right stock at the right time according to the tip you got. These are the myths that Wall Street pours on us from every media source. There is no profit in telling us the truth as Warren Buffett has. He does not profit from telling us how best to succeed over the long term. Example: An investor who started saving $500 a month in January 2008 and kept on making consistent monthly contributions would have ended up with about $226,000 by last November — even after the heavy losses in 2022. An investor who skipped contributions until January 2009 would have ended up with about $207,000. Buffett made over $117 Billion and knows the best investing strategy for us.

His advice is free: https://www.amazon.com/Warren-Buffetts-Vanguard-Funds-Retirement/dp/1496148592

Retiree asset allocation to maintain funds thru 1973–type Bear Market

Most retirees want advice about how to weather a huge market downturn like 1973-1974. A study of how retirees fair using different strategies during retirement shows that all retirees are better off holding equities at the beginning instead of bonds or cash. Unfortunately many think that exiting the equity market at retirement is best to be assured of a steady income. T. Rowe Price tested a “Guide Path” portfolio of 55% equities at age 65, declining gradually to 20% at age 95. The portfolio not only had withdrawals of $10,000 in 1973 but increased by the inflation rate each year. The portfolio was rebalanced monthly. Including these costs, the hypothetical retiree ended up with almost twice their initial balance of $250,000 by 2003. So even though equities fell by 15% and then 26% during this severe Bear, the strategy that works best must be a Target Date Fund—low-cost provides more money. Gold and cash cannot protect retirees.

https://www.amazon.com/Money-Ball-Investing-Winning-unfair/dp/1548831409

Easy way to know if you will have enough money in retirement

There are at 4 ways to project the size of your nest egg. However, to be practical it seems easier to just estimate how much you will need and work backwards. An example: the average middle-class income is about $50,000 a year. (The median income for households in 2020 was $67,521 in 2020.) The SS monthly benefit for this person is $1,693.88 or $20,326 annually. However, recipients usually have Part B deducted each month or $1,978.80 annually. Actual SS benefits are usually $18,347. This person needs $50,000-$18,347 or $31,653 a year to come from their 401k, IRAs, pension, and other accounts. Assuming they can generate 5% a year from their nest egg, they need a fund of $650,000 (not counting taxes (12% rate) they would owe). If they hold stocks and bonds in an IRA or IRA rollover, 5%+ will be a likely return for as long as they live. Bank CDs could pay 5% as now but there is no rate guarantee for 20-30 years. Each person can make the same estimate based on their specific situation.

https://www.amazon.com/Maximize-Social-Security-Benefits-Retirement/dp/1495439224/

?**********ACCOUNTABILITY**************?

Like 1776, this period is a test of democracy—We rejected an "American fascist" once

The Path to Dictatorship: 2010-2030

Parallels of this era in the past may hint at our future: democracy breaks apart legally

Jan 21 2010 Corporations’ election-spending unlimited

Billionaires paid $881 million for votes in 2022 midterm elections

Nov 2020 Wealthy discredit election process

Nov 21 2020 Trump’s Plans for a Coup: criminal

Nov 21 2020: Trump plan: US Marshals seize voting machines

Jan 6 2021 Direct govt overthrow failed: guns & bombs ready

Trump engaged in a "criminal conspiracy" to stop Biden

“I don’t f—ing care that they have weapons”

Trump was “detached from reality”

Trump used mafia-style intimidation on the defenseless

Trump still terrorizing election woman

Parscale: “a sitting president asking for civil war.”

Trump: “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me”

GOP fascism: “RINO hunt armed; no bagging limit” J6 comm threat

January 6, 2021 “A date which will live in infamy”

Trump’s Supremes END personal rights & state laws except for weapons WMDs

Fascism: GOP to stop women leaving state for abortion

It’s not a court. It’s a junta: Two Americas

Trump: President Biden is 'enemy of the state'

Christian Nationalist Party (CNP) replaces GOP

Nov 8 2022 Trump’s “national revolution” failed

Nov 15 2022 Trump announces for 2024 to avoid lawsuits

Dec 3 2022 Trump: cancel Constitution rules so ‘I win’

Mar 11 2023 Pence straddles his place in history

Mar 31 2023 Trump indicted misusing election money

Apr 7 2023 One GOP guy decided which drugs we can use

Apr 9 Illustrated Anne Frank book removed by Florida school

Apr 21 Trump: “I am your justice”

May 9 Trump guilty of sexual abuse

Jun 8 Trump indicted by the United States of America

Violation of the Espionage Act

Conspiracy to obstruct justice

Making false statements

Jan 2025 Dictator pardons himself: his Supremes agree

How Govt wastes our money:

GOP push tax cuts for favorites despite increasing the debt they opposed: we pay

Fraudsters stole over $280 billion in COVID-19 relief funding: Trump had no safeguards

US corps hold $2.1 trillion in profits offshore — much in tax havens: we pay their taxes

SCAMS/SPINS:

Trump fund-raising for presidential bid on day of felony indictment: WOW

GOP silence means OK to allow national security and nuclear codes to go public

Trump has already put his judges in place to avoid felony convictions: 1930 example

Trump claims innocent of hiding/moving/sharing national secrets: delay to ‘24 election

White woman shoots Black mom of 4 through the door: no arrest, then bond

MAGA: do we really want to go back to racist America? Trump’s ‘religious’ believers

2 Trumpers tried to suppress Black vote: false and intimidating robocalls: fine $5 million

TX shutting diversity offices at public universities: racist political move

FL law reduces minimum wage for some workers: lower worker protections

17 fatalities, 736 crashes: The shocking toll of Tesla’s Autopilot: Musk pays?

9 shot mass shooting CA: no suspect

6 shot and injured TX club dispute: no suspect

9 shot as Denver celebrates Nuggets’ win: shooter caught

Recall frozen strawberries and fruit: Hep A outbreak

Medicare fraud protection: learn to avoid fraud

Avoid a debt settlement scam

Five scams accounted for 40% reported cases: fake bank alerts, free gifts, etc

Check fraud: mailing payment may not be safe so keep check record of #, date, ‘To’

‘Free’ bet promotions offered don’t tell the costs: lawsuits

Common subject lines used to perpetrate these phishing expeditions: don’t click

For tickets on the primary market, fees increase the sticker price by 27%: Show all?

Jobs

Health care sector shortfall of more than 200,000 physicians and nurses and supports

Why-finding-job-is-difficult/: rely on friends/family

Shortage of court reporters: no degree necessary

Who owns your account now?

Types of Companies That Can Look at Your Credit Report

Insurers raising price and/or withdrawing from climate impacted areas: bigger deductible

Win a bidding war for your choice house: pre-qualify, simple cash deal

Social Security COLA Estimated at 2.7% for 2024 as Inflation Cools

No use protecting your data anymore: govt and sellers already have it: US spy agency

You need a home inventory not just for a disaster: apps help, storage, claims, theft, etc