Why we need a fully
invested comprehensive portfolio
Growth
stocks have outperformed value stocks since 2005 but we don’t know the
future. Holding one segment or type of stock can provide great gains but only
for a while. We need growth
and value from every sector for a long-term gain of at least 11% per annum.
Without the average
market gain of 11%, our purchasing
power would be overwhelmed by inflation when it rises. Most money managers
try to pick stocks that exceed the average returns but few do it for long.
There are simply too many variables and actors trying to do the same thing.
Returns “regress
to the mean” as this phenomenon is called. Since money managers are paid
big bucks to find the “needle in a haystack,” smart investors know they can’t.
They use tricks to advertise that they have found the”needle” in the past and
thus promise to do it for you. Unfortunately, the record is clear—those
who made the top of the list last time fall to the bottom next time. In
fact, all the top performers fell to the last within 31/2 years. And the
frustrating part is that no one can predict which manager will rise next
period. Meanwhile, the low-cost
market index rises past 14% after almost everyone predicted a recession.
Just “stay the course.”
https://www.amazon.com/Vanguards-Top-Ten-mutual-funds/dp/150073909X
Retirees need to
plan for one of these life-changing events
No one lives a
perfect life. Folks who devote some time to planning for earth-shattering
contingencies are better able to cope. A large majority of retirees say they
have experienced a major event during their retirement. We are talking about an
important person in their lives not being around that requires big changes
being dealt with. Death, especially sudden death, of a partner can be
catastrophic to them. Most people don’t want to think about such an event but
the experience can be softened by some planning. For instance, do both of you
know where the income and expenses are? Can you count on family/friends for
support? Where are the crucial documents located? A serious discussion about
your final wishes needs to happen before you can’t have it. This is one of the
greatest regrets survivors have. Same effects happen with a divorce and to some
degree a significant financial failure. I would also include significant health
issues: illness and becoming the caregiver to a relative.
https://www.amazon.com/Your-Plan-Live-Age-100/dp/1548180793
Would an annuity in
your retirement plan help you or insurers?
Another bill would
open the retirement plan default investment list to annuities by easing the
current QDIA asset liquidity rules. A qualified default investment alternative
means that if you don’t tell your employer where you want your money to go at
retirement, your employer can put your money in an annuity you may not like. Insurers
that issue annuities typically put restrictions on access to your assets. This
is not good for you since you lose control of your money. Another problem is
that your funds will be drastically reduced over time due to the insurer’s fees,
charges, and costs hidden in the contract. SEC on annuities: “These fees
and expenses will reduce the value of your account and the return on your
investment.” It is much more beneficial to you to have a large mutual fund
company move the funds from your employer into a high-earning low-cost fund
that can credit your checking account automatically every month for income or
investment. This will give you access to your money anytime and at the same
time provide a monthly income just like an annuity. You get the best of both
strategies without the extra costs.
https://www.amazon.com/Not-Buy-That-Annuity-Guaranteed/dp/1466494573
Are you using
unbiased advice?
One of our most
important financial decisions is finding and using UN-biased advice. Any person
who provides guidance in money matters is legally required to be registered.
Everyone who provides specific information is paid by us whether we see the
fees, charges or commissions or not. UN-biased advisors: experienced,
credentialed, clean record, not pushy, full cost and penalty disclosures, get
plan in writing, clear explanation, benefits for you AND seller, nothing ‘risk
free,’ forget references and affiliations. Fee-only planners provide the best
choice for most folks seeking UN-biased information about how, where, and when
to part with our money. You pay a fee like paying a lawyer and you get best
UN-biased advice money can buy.
https://www.amazon.com/Lies-Financial-Advisors-Told-alternatives/dp/1478281545
The myths of
investing
The myths: Advisors
can provide you with market beating returns. There are people who make a lot of
money trading stocks—buying and selling—for the profits while avoiding the
losses. Money managers can pick the right portfolio for long-term gains. You
can avoid losses by timing your investments. There are trends in market winners
and smart financial managers can ride the trends. You will not succeed in
reaching your goals unless you use a paid advisor. Using a broad low-cost
market index will provide less than par returns. You will never be successful
if you steadily contribute to your 401k. The market is like gambling—you can
win big by buying the right stock at the right time according to the tip you
got. These are the myths that Wall Street pours on us from every media source.
There is no profit in telling us the truth as Warren Buffett has. He does not
profit from telling us how best to succeed over the long term. Example: An
investor who started saving $500 a month in January 2008 and kept on making
consistent monthly contributions would have ended up with about $226,000 by
last November — even after the heavy losses in 2022. An investor who skipped
contributions until January 2009 would have ended up with about $207,000. Buffett
made over $117 Billion and knows the best investing strategy for us.
His advice is free: https://www.amazon.com/Warren-Buffetts-Vanguard-Funds-Retirement/dp/1496148592
Retiree asset
allocation to maintain funds thru 1973–type Bear Market
Most retirees want
advice about how to weather a huge market downturn like 1973-1974. A study of
how retirees fair using different strategies during retirement shows that all
retirees are better off holding equities at the beginning instead of bonds or
cash. Unfortunately many think that exiting the equity market at retirement is
best to be assured of a steady income. T.
Rowe Price tested a “Guide Path” portfolio of 55% equities at age 65,
declining gradually to 20% at age 95. The portfolio not only had withdrawals of
$10,000 in 1973 but increased by the inflation rate each year. The portfolio
was rebalanced monthly. Including these costs, the hypothetical retiree ended
up with almost twice their initial balance of $250,000 by 2003. So even though
equities fell by 15% and then 26% during this severe Bear, the
strategy that works best must be a Target Date Fund—low-cost provides more
money. Gold and cash cannot protect retirees.
https://www.amazon.com/Money-Ball-Investing-Winning-unfair/dp/1548831409
Easy way to know if
you will have enough money in retirement
There are at 4 ways
to project the size of your nest egg. However, to be practical it seems easier
to just estimate how much you will need and work backwards. An example: the
average middle-class income is about $50,000 a year. (The median
income for households in
2020 was $67,521 in 2020.) The SS monthly benefit for this person is $1,693.88
or $20,326 annually. However, recipients usually have Part B deducted each
month or $1,978.80 annually. Actual SS benefits are usually $18,347. This
person needs $50,000-$18,347 or $31,653 a year to come from their 401k, IRAs,
pension, and other accounts. Assuming they can generate 5% a year from their
nest egg, they need a fund of $650,000 (not counting taxes (12% rate) they
would owe). If they hold stocks and bonds in an IRA or IRA rollover, 5%+ will
be a likely return for as long as they live. Bank CDs could pay 5% as now but
there is no rate guarantee for 20-30 years. Each person can make the same
estimate based on their specific situation.
https://www.amazon.com/Maximize-Social-Security-Benefits-Retirement/dp/1495439224/
?**********ACCOUNTABILITY**************?
Like 1776, this
period is a test
of democracy—We
rejected an "American
fascist" once
The
Path to Dictatorship: 2010-2030
Parallels of this era in the past
may hint at our future: democracy breaks apart legally
Billionaires
paid $881 million for votes in 2022
midterm elections
Nov 2020 Wealthy
discredit election process
Jan
6 2021 Direct
govt overthrow failed: guns
& bombs ready
Trump
engaged in a "criminal
conspiracy" to stop Biden
“I
don’t f—ing care that they have weapons”
Trump was “detached
from reality”
Trump
used mafia-style intimidation on the defenseless
Trump still terrorizing
election woman
Parscale: “a
sitting president asking for civil war.”
Trump:
“Just
say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me”
GOP fascism: “RINO
hunt armed; no bagging limit” J6
comm threat
January
6, 2021 “A
date which will live in infamy”
Trump’s Supremes END
personal rights & state
laws except for weapons
WMDs
Fascism: GOP
to stop women leaving state for abortion
It’s
not a court. It’s a junta: Two Americas
Trump: President
Biden is 'enemy of the state'
Christian
Nationalist Party (CNP) replaces
GOP
Apr 9 Illustrated
Anne Frank book removed by Florida school
Apr 21 Trump: “I
am your justice”
May 9 Trump
guilty of sexual abuse
Jun 8 Trump
indicted by the United States of America
Violation
of the Espionage Act
Conspiracy to obstruct
justice
Making false
statements
Jan 2025 Dictator
pardons himself: his Supremes agree
How Govt wastes our money:
GOP
push tax cuts for favorites despite increasing the debt they opposed: we
pay
Fraudsters
stole over $280 billion in COVID-19 relief funding: Trump had no safeguards
SCAMS/SPINS:
Trump
fund-raising for presidential bid on day of felony indictment: WOW
GOP
silence means OK to allow national security and nuclear codes to go public
Trump
has already put his judges in place to avoid felony convictions: 1930
example
Trump claims
innocent of hiding/moving/sharing
national secrets: delay to ‘24 election
White
woman shoots Black mom of 4 through the door: no arrest, then bond
MAGA: do
we really want to go back to racist America? Trump’s
‘religious’ believers
2
Trumpers tried to suppress Black vote: false and intimidating
robocalls: fine $5 million
TX shutting
diversity offices at public universities: racist political move
FL law reduces
minimum wage for some workers: lower worker protections
17
fatalities, 736 crashes: The shocking toll of Tesla’s Autopilot: Musk pays?
9
shot mass shooting CA: no suspect
6
shot and injured TX club dispute: no suspect
9
shot as Denver celebrates Nuggets’ win: shooter caught
Recall frozen
strawberries and fruit: Hep A outbreak
Medicare
fraud protection: learn to avoid fraud
Five scams accounted for 40% reported cases: fake bank
alerts, free gifts, etc
Check fraud: mailing
payment may not be safe so keep check record of #, date, ‘To’
‘Free’ bet promotions offered don’t tell the
costs: lawsuits
Common subject lines used
to perpetrate these phishing expeditions: don’t click
For tickets on the
primary market, fees
increase the sticker price by 27%: Show all?
Jobs
Health
care sector shortfall of more than 200,000 physicians and nurses
and supports
Why-finding-job-is-difficult/:
rely on friends/family
Shortage of court
reporters: no degree necessary
Who owns your account now?
Types
of Companies That Can Look at Your Credit Report
Insurers raising
price and/or withdrawing from climate impacted areas: bigger deductible
Win
a bidding war for your choice house: pre-qualify, simple cash deal
Social Security COLA
Estimated
at 2.7% for 2024 as Inflation Cools
No
use protecting your data anymore: govt and sellers already have it:
You need a home
inventory not just for a disaster: apps help, storage, claims, theft, etc
Miracles:
A normal human body
contains 70% water: are we
really amphibians—crocs that walk
CA reservoirs
are nearly full again after years of drought. New satellite photos show
Building a church
for people turned off by church: evangelicals used to ordain women
Now say: female
pastors precursor to acceptance of homosexuality and sexual immorality
San
Francisco may become affordable again: eco decline means people leave: afford
apts
14-year-old Kairan
Quazi becomes the youngest
engineer at Elon Musk's SpaceX
Volunteering and
staying social are key to excellent health in later years
@
Our Universe is Mind-Blowing
Light is both
a particle and a wave depending on how we look at the light.
I
don’t think that there is any such thing as a position or a velocity of a
particle.
Everything (galaxies
to stones) in universe made of subatomic
energy ‘vibrations’
A subatomic ‘particle’
is the smallest possible vibration (quantum) of a quantum field.
Mass–energy
equivalence: E=mc^2. At the smallest
level; Everything is moving
Energy into matter: scientists
converted light energy directly into matter in one step
In place of atomic
lattice, light
waves used to create an optical lattice with same geometry
Physics Nobel Prize:
“entanglement” 2
particles share info instantly at a distance
Quantum
mechanics violates local realism: two objects behave as single system at
distance
“It may be that gravity and quantum mechanics are
exactly the same thing,” Leonard Susskind
Gravity
might induce the collapse of quantum vibrations into 1 quantum state—our
world
Strange state
of physics that allows energy
to flow frictionlessly through a material.
Bending light from
extreme gravity reveals largest black hole
so far
Curved
SpaceTime: heavy masses and simultaneously quantum effects become visible
There is no TIME at this
level because of force fields come and go in all directions.
Universe expanding: events
may not come together like they did before: created our time.
Our planetary
system: rarest
system: only 1% of all systems with same number of planets
Inside protons,
neutrons, it
is the fields of the virtual particles that creates its mass.
Gold
made from neutron stars: collisions produce more neutrons:79 protons,118
neutrons
The proton
is so complicated science still finds new energy entities/forces every
year.
“Empty space is a
boiling, bubbling brew of virtual
particles that pop in and out of existence in a time scale so short that you
can’t even measure them.” Space expanding.
The electricity we use comes
from the field around the wire not from electron itself.
Scientists
build 'baby' wormhole as sci-fi moves closer to fact: inside quantum
computer
starts-with-a-bang/universe-expansion-not-accelerating/
@
We can apply for
Medicare online: https://blog.ssa.gov/apply-for-medicare-online
We can apply for Social
Security online: https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/
We can apply for
health care online: https://www.healthcare.gov/
IAN
973.746.2014
http://www.theinsidersguides.com/
Alerts available at http://dankeppel.blogspot.com/
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