Your Unbiased Advisor

Friday, February 3, 2023

“Safe Retirement Income” email I received is wrong and misleading

Advisors/brokers say they can beat the market but they can’t

Wall Street must tell us they can beat the market because they only make money when we give them money. But they don’t know the future. Most unbiased information from Buffett, financial expert studies, and long-term financial institutions know that one-year wonders cannot provide accurate predictions or long-term returns ABOVE market returns. After a losing year for almost everyone, the market provided a 59% return over the past 5 years. That is 9.5% per year using the Vanguard 500 Index Fund. Few if any advisor provided market beating returns because their fees reduce our returns. They take their fees, charges, losses from our account. Over time, advisors can never overcome their own costs to provide market-beating returns. With the current fascination with AI, even AI says it cannot find a better security to beat the market. AI says market is too unpredictable to design a fund that beats the market index. Only a delusional financial firm would claim they can predict the stocks that could beat the market index in one year let alone consistently. It is only our greed that makes us fall for the promise of more.

https://www.amazon.com/One-Decision-Investing-Buffetts-strategy/dp/1723529176

“Safe Retirement Income” email I received is wrong and misleading

Annuity sellers are making promises that leave us with a misleading claim. Annuities are not “safe retirement income” because the companies that sell them won’t be around for us to sue when we learn the pitfalls of annuities. In the coming years, your promised benefits will be wiped out by inflation and reduced to the actual benefits stated in our contract—2-3%. The sales literature is wrong—“7% Returns with NO Market Risk”—because it is assumed the economy will stay the same. We know change happens. Insurers can become bankrupt, sell our contract, reduce the payouts, and sell on “financial illustrations” using bad assumptions to entice us to buy. Just the fact of inflation makes the word “Safe” income a lie. Over time normal inflation of 3% will reduce the VALUE of our monthly payouts by HALF. So at the beginning of the payout, age 70, we might receive $710 a month for life from a $100,000 deposit, by age 90, $710 may buy only $350 in goods. If we die at age 80, the insurer keeps the balance of our account.

Better option: https://www.amazon.com/Not-Buy-That-Annuity-Guaranteed/dp/1466494573

Which assets provide the best chance of reaching your goals?

Stock mutual funds with low costs provide 11% return over time. One advisor a year wins the top spot every year except IT ISN’T THE SAME ONE. That is the difference between an investor and a gambler. Look at the most recent past.

Now look at the DALBAR measures over time: https://www.dalbar.com/Portals/dalbar/cache/News/PressReleases/DALBAR%20Pinpoints%20Investor%20Pain%202015.pdf

If your advisor is taking their fees, charges, and market-timing losses out of your accumulations, you may be giving up 63% of your potential earnings over time. The best performing stock mutual funds in 2022 are not the same as 2021 or 2020 or any other year. Which is best for the long-term investor? Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors, says Vanguard 500 Index is the best for beating Wall Street “professionals.” Buffett: “a virtually cost-free investment in an unmanaged S&P 500 index fund - would, over time, deliver better results than those achieved by most investment professionals, however well-regarded and incentivized those "helpers" may be.”

https://www.amazon.com/You-Beat-Wall-Street-professionals/dp/1986031373

?**********ACCOUNTABILITY**************?

Like 1776, this period is a test of democracy—We rejected an "American fascist" once

The Path to Dictatorship: 2010-2030

Parallels of this era in the past may hint at our future: democracy breaks apart legally

Jan 21 2010 Corporations’ election-spending unlimited

Billionaires paid $881 million for votes in 2022 midterm elections

Nov 2020 Wealthy discredit election process

Nov 21 2020 Trump’s Plans for a Coup: criminal

Nov 21 2020: Trump plan: US Marshals seize voting machines

Jan 6 2021 Direct assault failed: guns & bombs ready

Trump engaged in a "criminal conspiracy" to stop Biden

“I don’t f—ing care that they have weapons”

Trump was “detached from reality”

Trump used mafia-style intimidation on the defenseless

Trump still terrorizing election woman

Parscale: “a sitting president asking for civil war.”

Trump: “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me”

GOP fascism: “RINO hunt armed; no bagging limit” J6 comm threat

January 6, 2021 “A date which will live in infamy”

Trump’s Supremes END personal rights & state laws except for weapons WMDs

Fascism: GOP to stop women leaving state for abortion

It’s not a court. It’s a junta: Two Americas

Trump: President Biden is 'enemy of the state'

Christian Nationalist Party (CNP) replaces GOP

Nov 8 2022 Trump’s “national revolution” failed

Nov 15 2022 Trump announces for 2024 to avoid lawsuits

Dec 3 2022 Trump: cancel Constitution rules so ‘I win’

Jan 2025 Dictator pardons himself: his Supremes agree

How Govt wastes our money:

Why Your Tax Refund May Be Lower This Year

IRS reminder to get refund on time: efile quick and easy: discounted price

We still subsidize oil companies that post record-smashing profits Congress paid off

Shell profit more than doubles to $40 bln: tax on windfall profits can cut deficit

Military budget talks: Air Force general: prepare for war with China in just two years

Wealthy avoid taxes using expensive trusts: ‘save’ $ millions so we pay for deficits

SCAMS/SPINS:

school-librarians-vilified-as-the-“arm-of-satan”-in-book-banning-hate-wars

FL schools tell teachers: hide your books to avoid felony charges

FL diversity programs at Florida’s colleges/universities to be dismantled: whites only!

It is so easy to get a fool into Congress: we get what we deserve?: he quits committees

GOP will not consider 2.3 $Trillion Trump tax breaks for the wealthy in debt debate

GOP crazies: Biden’s former assistant is actually working for the Chinese Communists

Jan6 terrorist who pepper sprayed police got 80 mo.

deSantos puts Russian in charge of anti-Woke indoctrination at New College

TX stops enforcing handgun age limit: anyone can carry a gun

People under domestic violence orders can own guns -U.S. appeals court rules

CA Asians buying more guns to feel safe: everyone will carry a gun soon

Police body-cam NOT deterrent to excessive force on Blacks: don’t stop beating to death

NJ mother and GOP borough councilwoman executed outside home: just elected

EzriCare Artificial Tears recall: 1 dead; 5 blinded by bacteria from India

Fake twitter info on Presley and rocks: you can tweet anything now

Anthony Liddle WI caught misrepresented bond risk; stole clients' $1.9 million

Todd A Cirella NY Edward S Short caught churning for commissions: short suspensions

Windshield trim panels fly off Ford Explorers while traveling at highway speeds: Elmer’s

When you book with Expedia, most of your money is going to CEO pay $296 million

Doctors out-of-network take over care of baby w/o permission: send bill for collection

Water for Desert golf, artificial lakes from Colorado River but not for people

Jobs

5 Jobs That Didn’t Exist 5 Years Ago

Who owns your account now?

Edmunds’ 2023 top picks: EVs: CR reports EV problems: buyer beware

Employers must now comply with new regs on employee health insurance

41 percent of millennials say a parent or parents pay their rent or mortgage

ETFs with the Worst Returns over the Past Five Years

First NFT ETF Is Closing as Once-Hot Crypto Trend Fizzles

Your advisor using model portfolios but charging you for “personal” money management

Social Security benefits unknown to most people in need of help

Miracles:

Earth’s solid inner core might rotate at a different rate than the rest of the planet: slows

Trump told McCarthy: Republicans 'Won't Touch' Medicare Or Social Security

Iceberg size of Greater London breaks away from Antarctica ice shelf “naturally”

Finland is the only country where homelessness is declining: they built houses

L.A. residents must now put food waste in their green bin: compost law

Monarch butterflies wintering in California rebound: 2^nd year growing flock

Our Universe is Mind-Blowing

Light is both a particle and a wave depending on how we look at the light.

I don’t think that there is any such thing as a position or a velocity of a particle.

Everything (galaxies to stones) in universe made of subatomic energy ‘vibrations’

A subatomic ‘particle’ is the smallest possible vibration (quantum) of a quantum field.

Mass–energy equivalence: E=mc^2. At the smallest level; Everything is moving a little

Energy into matter: scientists converted light energy directly into matter in one step

Physics Nobel Prize: “entanglement” 2 particles share info instantly at a distance

“It may be that gravity and quantum mechanics are exactly the same thing,” Leonard Susskind

Gravity might induce the collapse of quantum vibrations into 1 quantum state—our world

There is no TIME at this level because of force fields come and go in all directions.

Universe expanding: events may not come together like they did before.

Inside protons, neutrons, it is the fields of the virtual particles that creates its mass.

Gold made from neutron stars: collisions produce more neutrons:79 protons,118 neutrons

The proton is so complicated science still finds new energy entities/forces every year.

“Empty space is a boiling, bubbling brew of virtual particles that pop in and out of existence in a time scale so short that you can’t even measure them.” Space expanding.

The electricity we use comes from the field around the wire not from election itself.

Scientists build 'baby' wormhole as sci-fi moves closer to fact: inside quantum computer

starts-with-a-bang/universe-expansion-not-accelerating/

We can apply for Medicare online: https://blog.ssa.gov/apply-for-medicare-online

We can apply for Social Security online: https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/

We can apply for health care online: https://www.healthcare.gov/

IAN

973.746.2014

http://www.theinsidersguides.com/

Alerts available at http://dankeppel.blogspot.com/

Friday, January 27, 2023

Use Buffett's SIMPLE strategy

$1,000,000 retirement fund from contributions of $250 a month

Keeping your contributions in a low-cost tax-FREE account is the easiest way to make sure you have enough for retirement income for life. The contributions of $250 a month must be steady (automatic investing). You must avoid any advisor charges, stock picking or trading. Your best investment option for your long-term goal is a low-cost stock-market index since you own shares in the largest 500 US companies. Most are profitable for extended time periods. They have already proved their successful products/services. You are using the Warren Buffett strategy of compounding your earnings over time. His advice may seem simplistic but he has proven it works for investors who recognize that there is no advisor or strategy that is better at achieving long-term goals. Wall Street firms and advisors/brokers must take your earnings in order to survive. You pay less so you earn more: it is that simple. Wall Street costs a lot to run and most personnel don’t take a cut when they fail. This chart says it all: Over time, owning the 500 largest equities at cost provides on average 11% per annum. Over time, your $102,000 total contributions compound TEN times to over $1 million. It is time IN the market not market timing that defines a successful strategy. Use a long-term strategy for a long-term goal.

https://www.amazon.com/MasterClass-Buffetts-SIMPLE-Strategy/dp/1983485268

Where is your portfolio as market gains 3% in 2023?

Is your advisor waiting to re-enter the market? Sometimes market jumps are huge and if you are not in it, you lose. It may take time to recover the 20% drop but you won’t be able to if you are sitting in cash. Buffett has said that we should not bet against the US economy. In the past, stock market lows are followed by market highs. A low-cost balanced portfolio will help you stay in the money over time. Fast trading, market sector rotation and momentum are usually poor long-term strategies. No one knows the future so gambling will mean more losses than gains. You don’t need the expense of advisors since you pay even when they lose your money. Take Buffett’s advice.

https://www.amazon.com/Warren-Buffett-Your-Investment-Advisor/dp/1518690963

How much do you give up by investing through an advisor?

One analyst has estimated that over time, you give up 63% of your eventual total return by using “professionals” who claim they can improve your money management. However, they must sell expensive products and charge fees to stay employed by their firms. Financial firms are in the business of transferring your money to theirs. You pay every quarter or every transaction no matter how well or poorly your account does. But most folks don’t even know they pay costs. Because of 2022 negative returns more of us are changing advisors. But advisors could not predict the bond fallout or the equity downburst. We are more likely to need a psychologist to handle our expectations. We panic because we think of our security accounts as bank accounts. If we consider investing in companies as a partner in good businesses, we would not panic during a global pandemic. For long-term investors, there is no better asset class than equity indexes. This chart says it all: Over time, owning the 500 largest equities at cost provides 11% per annum. Buffett proved it: Vanguard 500 Index beat 6 hedge funds.

https://www.amazon.com/You-Beat-Wall-Street-professionals/dp/1986031373

The most important financial lesson to live by

“My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest.” Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time, credits compounding as a source of his financial success. Most of us have never heard of this in high school or college. Financial firms that charge us for promising to “manage” our money, have convinced us the Buffett’s strategy of “buy and hold” securities, allowing compounding to work, does not work. They claim they can help us meet our money goals. Perhaps in the short term they can sometimes. However, the price we pay in lost time in the market compounding our returns can never be made up. Dalbar tracks the total return of different assets “managed” by advisors vs just holding the indexes provides us with the evidence that Buffett is right. For instance, investing $250 a month over 10 years or longer time periods in a low-cost large stock index compounds to $54,700 vs only $36,500 if managed by a “professional” money manager. Since most investor don’t understand the cost benefits of compounding a “buy and hold” index fund account, they end up with only $167,700 vs $707,000 after 30 years of investing a total of $90,000. That is the power of compounding in the low-cost market index rate fund.

Learn: https://www.amazon.com/Miracle-Compounding-Turn-day-into/dp/1470176513

How to have $ million dollars tax-FREE for retirement income

The simplest way to end up with an adequate retirement income is to follow Warren Buffett’s strategy. You don’t have to pay Mr Buffett for his advice—he is not a broker or advisor. He does not write hypotheses for a Wall Street firm. He does not change his advice on which stocks to buy from month to month. He proved his strategy by betting and winning against 5 hedge fund gurus. He says buy low-cost Vanguard funds for your retirement. Since most of us can only invest once a month, if we contribute $250 a month to a special tax-FREE account, we can end up with $1,000,000 in 34 years. Since this account allows us to take the money out without income taxes, we will have more to spend in order to overcome the drag of inflation and advisor/broker costs. He recommends funding a retirement account directly by avoiding Wall Street entirely. You can earn more by paying less and allowing the Miracle of Compounding to work a miracle on your money. A low-cost account allows us to invest just $102,000 total over 34 years and end up with TEN times your investment. No advisor/broker can accomplish that Miracle. Confirm how this happens without an advisor/broker picking stocks, buying and selling, charging when they lose money. Check it: set the 34 years from 1989 to 2022 in this annual market rate calculator using the 11% average annual return.

https://www.amazon.com/Warren-Buffetts-Vanguard-Funds-Retirement/dp/1496148592

What to do when your long-term care policy premiums triple

Insurance companies used a number of bad assumptions or tricks when they sold you the policy over 10 years ago. Recently, almost everyone’s premium has skyrocketed. The state regulators (funded by the insurers) have rubber stamped almost all rate hikes. If you are stuck, the insurer will cover their mistakes by reminding you that you signed a disclosure that protects them from any responsibility. Ask the company what your options are. 1. Pay the increase like every insurance policy. 2. Reduce the years of cover since the average stay is under 8 months. 3. Reduce the daily benefit instead of any inflation-protection benefits. 4. Reduce the years of cover for the male since most females will live longer. 5. Reduce the benefits with a paid-up policy. 6. Take a cash buyout if offered. Add this cash to a low-cost well-run balanced mutual fund like Vanguard’s Wellesley Income Fund. Since most policies are used to pay in-home care giving services, you may have enough funds from other sources to pay for help at home. Medicare covers rehab costs after a hospital admittance. Remember very few people need expensive long-term care in a facility. Add the amount of premiums to your retirement account since most of us won’t use a policy but we will need help sometimes.

https://www.amazon.com/Long-term-Care-Insurance-Updated-2013/dp/148274001X

Retiree plan changes

Medicare can negotiate drug prices. In 2025, no enrollee will be required to pay more than $2,000 out of pocket per year. RMD age requirement moves from age 72 to age 73, starting on January 1, 2023 then to 75 in 2033. More time to compound earnings. You may start taking RMDs earlier and for a higher amount. The bill also allows higher “catch-up” contributions. Benefits of Medicare and Social Security are left in jeopardy since the wealthy Congress and their constituencies do not wish to shore up retirement needs for the future. House GOP has made it clear it will cut programs for the poor and middle class in favor of tax cuts for the rich, business subsidies and war spending. The current economic downturn will be overcome by more layoffs and higher prices, not by taxing the wealthy, GOP says. Most unbiased analysts favor using other resources before starting RMD withdrawals. Since Congress has not tried to fix the under funding of Social Security or Medicare, we must invest for the coming SS shortfall in 2034. Find your previous employer’s retirement plan assets at https://unclaimedretirementbenefits.com/

Boost retirement income: https://www.amazon.com/Maximize-Social-Security-Benefits-Retirement/dp/1495439224/